The Fourth Bet of Christmas [Eurovision]

We interrupt our scheduled programming to bring you this Eurovision Song Contest bet for Day 4/12.

Matt Rickard is a full-time reality TV trader. From his first bet on the competition in 2009, Matt was able to quit his day job six years later to focus on the greatest betting event of the year - the Eurovision Song Contest.

Picking a Eurovision contender in December – almost five months before the contest – is clearly an imprecise science. Picking a Eurovision contender when they haven’t released their song yet even less so. But fear not, some of my most profitable Eurovision trades have been taken while the Christmas lights are still sparkling, and while the market concentrates itself on some of the more traditional big hitters, this is the perfect moment for us to take advantage.

There is a lot of information already out there – from historical trends to the intentions of the all-seeing EBU, who run the competition. So, while we have 37 confirmed runners, we can eliminate as many as 20 without further concern. This covers most of the East, the three countries who have already shown their hands — France, Czechia and Albania — the micronations and the perennial underachievers. Ultimately, we are left with a pool of just 10 or so countries that can win come May.