TLS Season 1 was wrapped up following the Championship Play-Off final, and now is the time to settle up before Season 2 begins (today). And so, we’ve got a couple of items on the agenda:
A snap verdict on every bet by George Elek
When we launched this newsletter, we made two simple promises.
To seek out value in the EFL season-long markets, posting only bets that will settle at the end of the season, using the prices from major bookmakers.
To send one selection every Tuesday by email to paid subscribers on Substack
We might have broken our promises on a couple of occasions (there’s been the odd Wednesday publication and a few match bets as we hit our play-off stride), but in the round, we’ve stuck to our guns and come up with 139 points profit from 149 points staked and a 93% ROI.
Season 1: P/L
So here it is, the full P/L — you can trawl through all 109 bets over all our 41 episodes with our tracker below.
Season 1 E1-41 Review
George Elek
George#1 Treble Top Half Finish: Sunderland, Oxford, Salford
One out of three is bad. Quite happy that Salford gubbed this one early on, otherwise Sunderland would have been a bad beat given how they spiralled from a play-off chasing side under Mowbray to managerless in 16th via Mick Beale.
Nick#1 Treble Top Club in Yorkshire(Champ)/South West (L1)/Midlands(L2): Leeds/Bristol Rovers/Notts County
Goffy placed his faith in Joey Barton. Might be the last person to ever do that.
Ali#1 E/W single Nick Powell Top Goalscorer in League Two
The idea was that he’d play up front. He rarely played at all, and when he did it was as a holding midfielder. I’m amazed any of you stuck around after week one.
George#2 Single Harrogate Relegation
Harrogate’s season was one of the weirdest I’ve seen. Every metric had them maybe the worst team in L2 for the first few weeks of the season, then they were suddenly exceptional, then they settled somewhere in between.
George#3 Single Wycombe Relegation
Even though this never went short, it was live until quite late in the season. Matt Bloomfield’s side then hit some form and have to go down as a real eye-catcher going into 24/25.
George#3 Double Wycombe and Harrogate relegation
When both singles lose, the double loses too apparently.
George#4 Single Crawley top half finish in L2
George#4 Single Crawley top 7 finish in L2
Here we go. This is the stuff. Pre-season favs to finish bottom but after just three weeks of the season we’ve seen enough to get them onside. If only we’d backed them promotion…
Nick#5 Double Stevenage Top Half, Wimbledon Top Half
This is what TLS is all about. 4pt at just shy of 7/2 and it was odds-on within a couple of weeks. Both teams forgetting how to play football late in the season gave us a bit of a fright, but in truth this was a cosy winner.
Nick#5 Trixie West Brom top 6, Stevenage top 6, Wimbledon top 7
Baggies was a bulls-eye, and this went short to land the lot but, yeah, as above the other two fell away limply.
George#6 Single Watford promotion
George#6 Single Watford outright
I can only apologise. An example of when the numbers don’t always mean it’s going to come good.
George#7 Treble Top Half Finish: Watford, Charlton, Crawley
Yuck.
Ali#8 E/W single Conor Chaplin Top Goalscorer
Finished on 13 goals and a fair way off the places. Was goalless in Town’s last six when we were hoping for a late surge into the play-offs.
Ali#8 E/W single Sammie Szmodics Top Goalscorer
The King of TLS - Samuel Joseph Szmodics. Crazily bet365 were the only firm who even had him priced up at the time of tipping, so leftfield was this shout. He ended up winning by half the track. What a man, what a bet. Well done Ali Maxwell.
Ali#8 E/W Trixie Conor Chaplin, Jonson Clarke-Harris, Davis Keillor Dunn Top Goalscorer
If only it was Szmoddy in there rather than Chappy we’d have had a nice place double. Jonson Clarke-Harris was not a good selection given he barely played, although nine goals in 1574 minutes was a fair return when he actually did get on the pitch.
Nick#9 Single Salford relegation
The very definition of a good value loser, Goffy spotted just how bad Salford were ahead of the market and they went short for the drop before finding their feet under new boss Karl Robinson.
Nick#9 Double Sheff Wed and Shrewsbury relegation
If you ask Nick Goff how Sheff Wed didn’t go down he will say “Danny Röhl”. If you ask him how Shrewsbury didn’t come closer to the drop his head will explode.
Nick#9 Trixie Salford, Sheff Wed and Shrewsbury relegation
As above, but I often prefer no winners in a Trixie than one.
George#10 Single Cheltenham to finish bottom
By the time Darrell Clarke started turning the Cheltenham ship around this was odds-on. Gubbed by one of the best managerial jobs I’ve ever seen, and they still went down.
George#10 Double Cheltenham to finish bottom and Crawley Top 7 finish
Love you Crawley.
George#10 Single Crawley to win League Two
Why oh why didn’t I do promotion? It was 20/1 at the time. I live and I learn.
George#11 E/W single Peterborough Outright
When you back a horse e/w and it goes short in running then finishes 4th it is always really very annoying. This was the same.
George#11 Single Peterborough Promotion
Even as an Oxford fan I can admit that this probably should have come down to 90 mins at Wembley.
George#12 Single Doncaster to finish Top Half
It took a while for this to come good but ended up winning while doing cartwheels.
Nick#13 E/W double Portsmouth to win League One & Stockport to win League Two
Bish, bash, bosh. 23rd of October and Goffy’s given you the winners of L1 and L2.
Nick#13 Single Southampton top six finish
It blows my mind that they were ever priced up at 5/6. Did it ever look in doubt? Surely our first TLS winner to cop.
Nick#13 Double Southampton top six finish and Blackpool top six finish
Blackpool were the ultimate tease, never quite inserting themselves in the conversation but also never just buggering off and letting us focus on other things until the final day.
Nick#13 Single Exeter relegation
We underestimated them in our 1-24s, then Goffy did again here. Who are you if you haven’t got the Grecians wrong at some point last season?
Nick#13 Double Swansea top half finish, Wycombe top half finish
In my head this was beat before Christmas. In actual fact, Wycombe's part won and Swansea finished 14th. Fine margins.
Nick#13 Trixie Blackburn top six finish, Leyton Orient top six finish, Accrington Stanley promotion
He’s human.
George#14 Single Doncaster Top Half
Cartwheels.
George#14 Single MK Dons Top 7
Mike Williamsagoodmanager. The price didn’t register their improvement under the new boss and we made the most of it.
George#14 Single MK Dons Promotion
Looked good all season, and then they suffered the biggest play-off loss in history. To who though?
Ali#15 E/W Trixie Sammie Szmodics, Colby Bishop, Macaulay Langstaff Top Goalscorer
This nearly blew the bloody doors off. Two winners, Denise still asleep at the wheel with Sammie 28/1. Want to feel sick? If Colby hadn’t missed two penalties since this was published he’d have DH’d with May and we’d all be in the Caribbean.
George#16 Double Mansfield to be promoted and Sunderland Top 6 Finish
No way the Lads.
George#17 Single Cambridge to be relegated
It went to final day, but Cambridge’s journey from Bonner to Harris to Monk ultimately didn’t lead to League Two.
Nick#18 Trixie Title winners: Leicester, Bolton, Stockport
In the timeless words of the philosopher Meat Loaf; two out of three ain’t bad.
Nick#18 Single Bolton promotion
Pesky Oxford again. At least we were on them the day that this mattered. Again, Bolton’s auto hopes came down to final day.
Nick#18 Double West Brom top six, Blackpool top six
Neil Critchley was winking at us across the bar again. What can we say, he’s hard to ignore.
Nick#18 Single Barrow top seven
A proper 1.01 shot chinned, but with us backing three of the eventual play-off sides at bigger prices we can’t complain too much.
George#19 Single Birmingham Championship relegation
Another case of the market not quite waking up to the absolutely massive storm clouds that had moved from Washington DC directly over St. Andrews.
George#19 Single Colchester L2 relegation
Danny Cowley did well to keep Colchester up, but this was shorter than 13/2 for the rest of the campaign until they were safe.
George#19 Trixie Birmingham, Cambridge, Colchester relegation
This was live going into final day, but that horror one-winner trixie again, and the biggest price of the lot.
George#20 Single Sunderland Top 6
George#20 Single Sunderland Promotion
Fuck off the lads.
George#21 E/W single ew Bishop Top L1 GS
A nice price. This again is where we hope we can dominate in these markets. Bishop was knocked out when he suffered an injury, but not clipped in when it turned out the injury wasn’t so bad. Those two penalties…
Nick#22 Single Walsall Top 7
The 8/1 was 5/2 in no time, but we had this market covered.
Nick#22 Single MK Top 7
I thought they said there’s no such thing as a free lunch?
Nick#22 Single Boro Top 6
A bit like Blackpool in League One, Boro threatened to get involved without ever really doing so
Nick#22 Single Derby Outright
A loser, but nothing lost given the Pompey part of the winning ew double.
Nick#22 Trixie Middlesbrough top six, Barnsley top 6, MK Dons top 7
Banked the shorties but Boro let us down for the bullseye.
Nick#22 E/W single 0.25pts each way Leicester to win the FA Cup
Nick#22 E/W single 0.25pts each way Leeds to win the FA Cup
Nick#22 E/W single 0.25pts each way Southampton to win the FA Cup
Nick#22 E/W single 0.25pts each way Ipswich to win the FA Cup
What a bit of fun this was, although avoiding the pain of Coventry getting through to the final was the only good thing that came from their penalty shootout defeat at Wembley. The draw wasn’t kind, with our sides coming unstuck against Chelsea, Chelsea, Liverpool and, erm, Maidstone.
George#23 E/W Trixie Adam Armstrong, Colby Bishop and Davis Keillor-Dunn
Place, place, place and it pays as a 10/1 winner from the total outlay.
George#24 E/W single Davis Keillor Dunn top scorer L2
A nice late run ensured he was in the frame.
George#24 E/W Dan Kemp top scorer L2
The loan recall back to free-scoring MK was meant to be a boost to Kemp’s goalscoring, but they were so good that he couldn’t get a kick.
George#24 E/W Danilo Orsi top scorer L2
If only play-offs count in this market. Or if only there was a market for ‘surprising breakout goalscorer in League Two for a promoted side.’ They could call it the Paul Mullin award, and Danilo Orsi would have been the winner.
George#25 Single Blackburn to be relegated
I think this was one of the best bets we had over the course of the season, and the fact that it didn’t win doesn’t change that.
George#25 Shrewsbury and Colchester relegation double
This wasn’t one of the best bets we had over the course of the season.
George#25 Trixie all three selections
Duck egg.
George#26 Single Coventry To Finish Top 6
Did I stake too much here? Maybe, but the price was wild. Have to think the FA Cup run and the way they were dumped out, when still IWAC, didn’t help.
Nick#27 Single Preston top half finish
Largely unfancied Preston did this cosily.
Nick#27 Single Lincoln top half finish
I don’t think we can claim to know quite what was about to happen at Lincoln, but we could chalk this down as a winner within a couple of weeks.
Nick#27 Single Salford Top half finish
Like Harrogate, we backed Salford to both be relegated and to finish in the top 7 and they finished in the middle, having never really looked like doing either.
Nick#27 Trixie 0.25 trixie the above
Another two winners out of three puts this in ‘a winner’s a winner’ territory.
George#28 Single Blackburn to be relegated
We went in again and rightly so.
George#28 Single Milwall to be relegated
Neil Harris, are you joking? Fair play to him for turning this situation around, I did not see it coming.
George#28 Single Stoke to be relegated
Given our 1-24 prediction of Stoke to be “somewhat competitive” is their annual kiss of death, it’s only right that I delivered their kiss of life this time around.
Ali#29 Single Stoke to be relegated
…And even more apt that Ali joined me in this three-way kiss.
Ali#29 E/W single James Collins L1 Top Goalscorer
He got injured with pretty much his first kick after this ill-fated episode went live.
Ali#29 Single Harrogate Top 7
See Salford
Ali#29 Trixie the above
Ali, if it wasn’t for Szmodics we’d be chanting what you’ll be up to in the morning
George#30 Single Norwich Top 6
Back on track. Norwich fans may not have thought David Wagner was leading them to the top six, but we were on.
George#30 double Norwich Top 6 and Shrewsbury relegation
Shrews by name, shrews by nature.
Nick#31 Single Gillingham top seven finish
Nick#31 Single Walsall top seven finish
A rare swing and a miss from Goffy this week but, again, this was a market we did ok in so no harm done.
George#32 Single Blackburn to be relegated
Hello darkness my old friend
George#32 Single Plymouth Argyle to be relegated
This nearly won! But we were glad it didn’t as we got more back for the Birmingham selection.
George#32 Single Preston Top 6
Largely unfancied Preston did not do this
Nick#33 Single Cambridge relegation
Welcome Nick to the Cambridge relegation bandwagon. You get some good bang for your buck but the ride ultimately ends in tears at Cheltenham, only this time in May rather than March.
Nick#33 Single Oxford top six finish
When I saw this I genuinely went from thinking that Oxford’s season was over to thinking we had a chance. He was right you know.
Nick#33 Single Crawley top seven
Again - where is that promotion bet?
Nick#33 Single Forest Green to finish bottom
This went 1.01 before sneakily nearly being gubbed on final day, before an injury-time Harry Smith equaliser at MK for already relegated Sutton saw us home. TLS subs might be the only people in the world who actually cared about that goal.
Nick#33 4x doubles Burton relegation and Cambridge relegation with Crawley top seven and Forest Green bottom
Two winners and two losers would normally be ok here, but in this case it was nothing back.
Nick#33 Trixie Plymouth relegation, Cambridge relegation, Crawley top seven 7
Welcome back Mr. Meat Loaf, you’re always welcome here.
George#34 Single Cheltenham relegation
Cheltenham were too short for relegation pretty much all season, then they were suddenly too big and we were able to get them onside. Thank God, otherwise L1 relegation would have been a bloodbath.
George#34 Double Cheltenham and Sheffield Wednesday relegation
Danny Röhl.
George#35 Single Charlton Top Half Finish
This was gross, but not as bad as my Charlton outright slip from July.
George#35 Single MK Dons Top 3 Finish
Maybe unnecessary in hindsight given we were already on promo, but it was value at the time.
George#37 Single Doncaster Top 7
An example as to why one shouldn’t be put off having missed out on the fancy prices. Yeah we missed the 100/1 from a couple of weeks before and all the way down, but the price was still a good one and it won easily.
George#37 Single Doncaster Promotion
I’m still not really sure what happened in that second leg against Crewe, but it was a shame we were deprived of the ‘sit back and relax’ L2 PO final had they faced Crawley.
George#38 Single Lincoln to be promoted
Got the big price here and they would have likely been a better match for Bolton in the semi-finals than Barnsley had Danny Mandroiu not missed a penalty against Pompey.
Nick#38 Single Bolton Promo
Sorrrrry
Nick#38 Single Donny TQ
Yeah, that second leg.
Nick#38 Single Crawley promo
No one…
Absolutely no one…
Nick Goff: Crawley win the play-offs.
George#39 Single Posh TQ
This 17/10 shot was 4/5 at kick-off. It might not have won but we probably won’t find many more moves like that
Nick#40 Single Leeds v Norwich over 2.5 goals
Nick#40 Single Southampton v West Brom over 2.5 goals
Nick#40 Double Over 2.5 goals double
Bish. Bash. Bosh. Where was the 3.5?
Nick#40 Single Oxford draw no bet (play-off final)
Nick#40 Single Oxford promotion
Bolton opened short and went shorter, but the market got this one all wrong.
George#41 Saints Draw No Bet (play-off final)
This goes down as my winner, but Goffy basically dribbled the pitch, rounded the keeper and then passed it to me.
George#41 Under 2.5 goals (play-off final)
But I can score my own goals too. 11 of the last 12 Championship Play-Off Finals have now seen under 2.5 goals. An auto-bet at prices like this regardless of the teams involved.
George#41 No Goalscorer @ 10/1
A game of not many chances. Alas, or Adamn, one went in.