Seeing videos of EFL clubs back in pre-season this week has sharpened the mind.
It’s not long now until it all starts again. That month or so has absolutely flown by. Hopefully, the players crammed in a lot of fun in Vegas, Dubai and Ibiza—because it’s back to the bleep tests now!
Markets-wise, we’re still in a bit of limbo because we don’t have relegation markets yet. It was around this time last year that we found the Carlisle gem, but that option isn’t available just yet this year. And I don’t blame firms for waiting a bit longer—those markets are a pig to price, with so many layers of information needed to get it right.
They need to avoid being wrong on all 24 teams. We just need to spot one they’re wrong on, which they may not know about—something economists call adverse selection. But we can wait. They’ve got to go up eventually, and when they do, hopefully the next Carlisle will be there.
We do have one small bet today to tide us over until next week, when more markets are likely to appear and we can start ramping up our ante-post portfolios.