[S2:E09] Searching for Szmod: Part One

We may not find another 150/1 top goalscorer winner... but we will try.

Ali Maxwell

This is part one of a series called ‘Searching For Szmod’, in which we start to build a TLS portfolio of EFL Top Goalscorer picks, mixing pre-season research with a dollop of instinct and personal taste.

Last season, this went very, very well. Don’t get me wrong, even without Super Sammie, TLS Season 1 ROI would have been a healthy 33%. But his contributions to exactly 90 points of profit from 2.5pts staked, across two bets, will never be forgotten.

Can we get close to emulating it? Logic and probability says ‘no’, but I’m a blind optimist (when it suits me), and goalscorer punting is my favourite part of this game.

We’ll expand our Poacher’s Portfolio again with parts two in September, and hopefully we can eke out some more profit from these markets.

Last season was a strange year for Golden Boot trend detectives. The finishing league position of the EFL’s three Golden Boot winners was 19th, 16th and 14th — only 2 of the previous 30 Golden Boot winners in the last decade of the EFL had finished in the bottom half! Shoutout Ross McCormack and Matt Tubbs.

Championship

When top goalscorer prices started to dribble out, within EFL betting circles it felt like all eyes were on the price of Middlesbrough’s Emmanuel Latte Lath. Latte Lath scored in 9 of his final 12 league games to end with 16 goals in 2,100 minutes, an impressive debut EFL season. Playing for an excellent attacking team, he’s understandably short, sitting around the 10/1 mark with Leeds’ Mateo Joseph. With Boro reportedly leading the race for Tommy Conway, there may be some competition on the horizon for Latte Lath.

Although I’m excited for Leeds’ young Spanish striker Joseph - and have heard he looks electric in pre-season - I still think there are minutes to be shared at the top of end of the pitch. With Joseph, Bamford, Piroe and Rutter all present towards the top of the market, I’m happy to swerve the title favourites’ attackers until we have a clearer picture.