[S1:E9] Ferris Bueller's Day... Goff
In Nick Goff's second in-season TLS selections, he gets against teams that he thinks the market is currently overrating.
Hello again, friends.
Since I was last around these parts quite a lot has happened in the Championship and League 2… League 1 not so much, in terms of goals at least.
We’re getting close to the 20% of the season-gone-mark. That is always a signal for outright markets taking shape as we’re able to separate noise and unsustainable fast and slow starts from those who may well be the real deal. It’s now not too difficult to spot who are probably the best 3-4 teams in the Championship and League 2, we’d probably get very close to unanimous agreement on those. League 1... yes, again the black sheep.
The next few weeks will be especially interesting in that division as a few early pretenders either drop away or prove they’re in a promotion battle for the long haul. Whilst at the same time, some of the big boys (I’m looking at you especially Derby and Bolton), need to put together a run of performances and results to prove they’re going to be the as-billed automatic promotion contenders rather than finding themselves a place on the 23-24 flops list.
But for today’s bets, we’re going to concentrate on the bottom, not the top. Relegation bets are arguably the toughest propositions in EFL betting because we need to be on top of an extra layer, namely points deductions. Year in, year out we see the sad sight of a club going into administration affecting the final relegation positions and with deductions to two clubs already, you’d be a brave man to argue it won’t happen somewhere again.
All that said, I think the risk-reward trade-off here is in our favour right now, so we can get involved in all three markets.
I’ll start with League 2, just because no one ever does, and because it’s the big-priced selection so is more exciting. With only two places up for grabs and the potential for the aforementioned deductions this is a market I always tread very carefully with. However, I do believe it’s time to dip our toe in with a speculative selection here for a few reasons.