George Elek
Welcome back to The Long Shot. This is Episode Two, coming live and direct at 9:00 AM on a Tuesday morning. That is the time we'll be publishing every week moving forwards — synchronise watches!
After the much-anticipated Opening Weekend of the season, you could be tempted to make premature and sweeping conclusions about teams off the back of 90 minutes’ worth of evidence (plus added time!).
Watford, for example, will be proving popular in the Championship outright market off the back of a 4-0 win over QPR, while Barnsley have halved in price in League One after their 7-0 drubbing of Port Vale.
The reality is that Barnsley’s seven goals came from eight shots on target, from a total xG of under 2, while the merit of Watford’s win can only be measured when we understand just how poor this QPR side is.
The best way to find value after just one weekend of the season is to look for instances where a price has moved considerably due to a scoreline which, when digging a bit deeper, may not reflect the performance level or balance of play.
This provides us with a ripe opportunity down in League 2.